A Failed Crop Rattled the Chocolate Industry. Then Speculators Came. (2024)

Business|A Failed Crop Rattled the Chocolate Industry. Then Speculators Came.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/10/business/cocoa-prices-chocolate.html

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After a production shortfall in West Africa, cocoa prices rose to $4,000 a metric ton from $2,500. Then they went nuts.

Credit...Carl Godfrey

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A failed crop, followed by a wave of financial speculation, put cocoa prices on a roller coaster this year, rattling an industry reliant on inexpensive crops and labor.

This is not how things normally go in the cocoa market. For much of the past decade, the price of cocoa in one key global benchmark hovered around $2,500 per metric ton. Last year, after poor harvests in West Africa, the price began to creep up — rising to $4,200 a ton by December, a threshold that hadn’t been crossed since the 1970s.

Then the financial speculators began to pile in — betting prices would rise further. They pushed the price above $6,000 a ton in February, $9,000 a ton in March and $11,000 a ton in mid-April. Since then, the price has swung wildly, falling nearly 30 percent in just two weeks before bouncing up again. By Thursday, the price was $8,699 a ton.

Large food companies have been raising prices and warning that they’ll have to continue to do so if cocoa doesn’t stabilize. Companies that use more pure cocoa — rather than the palm oil and other fillers that go into many candy bars — will be hit hardest, though some premium chocolate makers note that they’ve always paid much higher prices in order to compensate farmers fairly.

The situation doesn’t look as if it’s going to settle down soon. Here’s what you need to know.

What happened to the cocoa crop?

A combination of low rainfall, plant disease and aging trees led to a disappointing crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana in 2023. The two countries produce about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, so the shortage hit the global market hard. It continues: The International Cocoa Organization recently forecast that global production will trail demand by 374,000 tons this season, which ends in September, after a 74,000-ton shortfall last year.

There’s no quick fix for this. The trees take years to produce fruit, giving farmers little incentive to plant more since they don’t know what the price of the crop will be when they bear fruit. Some may prefer to use more of their land for growing rubber or mining gold.

Wholesale price of cocoa delivered to U.S. ports

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A Failed Crop Rattled the Chocolate Industry. Then Speculators Came. (2024)

FAQs

What changes is Tony's chocolate making to the chocolate industry? ›

We're working our beans off to end modern slavery and illegal child labor in the chocolate industry. We do it by using Tony's 5 Sourcing Principles to take direct responsibility for our supply chain and ending exploitation and poverty at the root of chocolate's bitter truth.

What are the major issues facing the cacao industry? ›

  • Cocoa production: an overview. Cocoa trees need a tropical climate to thrive – they love heat and moisture. ...
  • Low cocoa prices and income for cocoa farmers. The majority of cocoa farmers live in poverty. ...
  • Child labour in cocoa farming. ...
  • Pesticides in cocoa farming. ...
  • Deforestation in cocoa farming.

How is chocolate linked to deforestation? ›

Cocoa farmers usually clear tropical forests to plant new cocoa trees rather than reusing the same land. That practice has spurred massive deforestation in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast. Experts estimate that 70% of the country's illegal deforestation is related to cocoa farming.

Who dominates the chocolate industry? ›

Brands in the U.S. market

In the U.S. chocolate market, two companies set the bar by which everyone else's performance is measured. Hershey and Mars claim the biggest share of the United States chocolate market. Hershey's share is about a third. Mars claims a bit more than a quarter of the market for its products.

What's so special about Tony's chocolate? ›

Our mission is 100% slave free chocolate. To achieve this, we have to make the most amazing ethically produced chocolate, so we can help cocoa farmers create a better future for themselves and inspire other chocolate makers to follow our example. In other words, we want to change the mainstream chocolate industry.

Is Tony's chocolate slavery free? ›

We have never found an instance of modern slavery in our supply chain, however, we do not guarantee our chocolate is 100% slave free. While we are doing everything we can to prevent slavery and child labour, we are also realistic.

Is chocolate bad for the environment? ›

The first step in chocolate production is the cultivation of cocoa beans. Cocoa trees thrive in tropical regions, mainly in West Africa, but also Latin America and Southeast Asia. Cocoa farming drives deforestation, which releases significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere.

Is cocoa farming bad for the environment? ›

Farmers cut down trees to plant their crops, eliminating competition from surrounding plants and animals that may take away water or nutrients from the soil needed for growing cacao beans. This can cause erosion, which again increases the amount of sediment in waterways and reduces water supplies.

Is chocolate milk bad for the environment? ›

Additionally, the processing of cocoa beans and the production of chocolate milk involve energy-intensive steps that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. However, it's important to note that the carbon footprint can vary depending on the sourcing practices and the proportion of cocoa used.

Does Hershey own Lindt? ›

Beyond its namesake chocolates, Hershey also owns many well-known candy bar brands. This Switzerland-based company is known for premium chocolates Lindt, Ghirardelli, and Russell Stover.

Is Mars or Hershey bigger? ›

Hershey Co.

With a U.S. market share of about 23.6 percent in 2021, Hershey was the leading confectionery company in the United States, beating out Mars with almost one percent.

Does Nestle own Hershey? ›

No, Nestlé does not own Hershey. Hershey is its own company, and it's one of the largest chocolate manufacturers in the world. However, Nestlé is a major player in the food and beverage industry, with a diverse portfolio that includes chocolate products among many others.

What impact has Tony Chocolonely had on the chocolate industry? ›

Tony's sourcing principles for slave free cocoa

We show that chocolate can be made differently, without slavery and exploitation. We've developed our own recipe for slave free cocoa with five ingredients. It enables the farmers to earn a living income.

How is the chocolate industry changing? ›

In 2024, the trend towards healthier lifestyles significantly influences the chocolate industry. According to Innova Market Insights, health-related claims in food products have surged by over 20% in the past year, and chocolate is a big part of this movement.

What is happening in the chocolate industry? ›

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) predicts production will trail demand by 374,000 metric tons in the 2023-2024 season, the third straight shortfall. Chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG sees a deficit of 500,000 tons, equal to about a 10th of the global market, and the company sees another shortfall next year.

How did making chocolate change after the Industrial Revolution? ›

One of the impacts of the Industrial Revolution on chocolate that still impacts us today is the improved texture, and as a result, the taste of chocolate products making them the creamy and rich way we know them to be today. Like many products in the early 20th century, advertising campaigns began about chocolate.

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