Monday Morning Leafs Report: Auston Matthews staking claim to greatest season in Leafs history (2024)

Auston Matthews scores so frequently that it’s become easy for even his teammates to take it for granted.

“Oh, I think we all do,” said Morgan Rielly in a recent conversation with The Athletic. “I want to say no because I love playing with him and he’s an amazing teammate and you try not to take those guys for granted — ever.”

But, Rielly was saying, it still happened anyway. Even they take it for granted. Matthews’ feats have come to feel commonplace even if they are the furthest thing from it.

Rielly was reminded of that when the Leafs were getting ready to play in Washington last month. He glanced up at a TV and saw that Matthews was exceeding Alex Ovechkin’s goal production at the same stage of their respective careers.

Matthews, who became only the ninth player ever to score 60 goals in multiple seasons over the weekend, has played in 553 regular-season games for the Leafs. He’s scored in 270 of them. In other words, Matthews has scored at least once, remarkably, in almost 50 percent (48.8 percent officially) of the games he’s played.

No wonder it feels so normal for everyone — fans, media, teammates even — to see him score.

“As much as people talk about him, and as much (as he’s received) the accolades and things like that, I think it still does (get taken for granted),” Rielly said. “In a good way, I mean that.”

There’s a case to be made that this season in particular will, or should, go down as the greatest by a Leaf — ever.

Greater than Matthews’ own 2021-22 season, when he set a franchise record with 60 goals and won the franchise’s first Hart Trophy in 67 years. Greater than even Doug Gilmour’s famed 1992-93 season, which saw him set a franchise record with 127 points.

Adjust for era, Matthews is headed for the greatest goal-scoring season by a Leaf in the modern era (and the three best after that, no less).

Not just that: Matthews is headed for the greatest point-producing season by a Leaf in modern times, adjusted for era, even with teammate William Nylander.

All that offence has been paired with a Defensive Rating that ranks in the 98th percentile.

Soon to become only the second three-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner after Ovechkin (nine), Matthews is tied for second among all NHL forwards in blocked shots (85) and ranks third among his peers in takeaways.

The Leafs have won over 56 percent of the five-on-five shots when he’s been out there — and only 50.8 percent when he’s not. They’ve outscored teams by 28 goals in those minutes (71-43).

And the non-Matthews minutes? The Leafs have only a five-goal advantage, winning 51 percent of the goals.

Matthews has also added penalty-killing responsibilities to his resume this season, which should launch him into consideration for a Selke Trophy. He’s taken only three penalties, in any situation, all season, which is remarkable given the quantity and quality of minutes he plays. That’s the second-fewest penalties of any NHL forward to log at least 1,000 minutes this season.

Is it the greatest season ever by a Leaf, though? It’s not over yet obviously, but it’s heading in that direction.

Matthews won’t come close to Gilmour’s point production in that ’92-93 season. However, NHL teams were averaging over 3.6 goals per game that year. The average save percentage was .885. Compare that to 3.1 goals per game this season. Gilmour’s 127 points are the most by a Leaf in a single season, yes, but they were bested by six players in the NHL that season, led by Mario Lemieux with 160 points.

Though, Gilmour won the Selke that season and was runner-up to Lemieux for MVP. He also led the Leafs deep into the postseason.

Pretty impressive.

Was Matthews of two seasons ago more dominant than the current version? The Leafs won a ridiculous 65 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five with Matthews on the ice that 2021-22 campaign. Matthews finished with 60 goals and 106 points in only 73 games.

He’s sitting on 60 and 95 in 72 games so far this season, with an expected goals mark of 55 percent.

This Leafs team is weaker than that one, though. Matthews has had to do more. Two seasons ago, 41 percent of the five-on-five faceoffs he was out there for were in the offensive zone. This season, that number is down to 36 percent.

Matthews has actually scored at a slightly higher rate without Mitch Marner than he has with him. He has six hat tricks so far, tied for the fifth-highest total in NHL history. He’s rescued the Leafs from sure losses on some of those nights.

Also: Scoring in the NHL is down slightly from two seasons ago.

Matthews will end up breaking his own franchise record for goals. He’s on pace for 68, which would be the most for anyone, on any team, in almost 30 years.

That plus Selke-calibre defence and maybe another Hart Trophy? It’s hard to beat. Lead the Leafs on a deep playoff run later this spring and the conversation is probably over.

“When you stop and think about it, I think you realize it,” Rielly said of the historic nature of Matthews’ production. “But it’s not something you notice right away as one of his teammates or one of his buddies, and I think that’s just a testament to how he carries himself.”

And how that’s that? “Under the radar,” Rielly said, “just one of the guys.”

More Matthews

Ovechkin may soon become the NHL’s all-time goals leader. He scored 60 goals in a season only once in his career.

Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy share the NHL record with five seasons of 60 goals or more. Lemieux and Phil Esposito each got there four times, followed by Brett Hull, with three such seasons. Matthews has joined Pavel Bure, Steve Yzerman and Jari Kurri with two 60-goal seasons.

Matthews is only 26 and in his eighth NHL season. In other words, there’s plenty of room still for him to add more 60-goal seasons to his resume — maybe even the three required to catch Gretzky and Bossy.

Scoring 60 today is harder than it was in previous decades and, therefore, a little more special.

Consider that in ’92-93, five players — Lemieux, Bure, Alexander Mogilny, Luc Robitaille and Teemu Selanne — buried 60 goals or more. Yzerman and Pierre Turgeon fell just short with 58 each.

Only five players, period, have scored 60 in the 2000s: Matthews (twice), Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, David Pastrňák and Connor McDavid.

Matthews might have had at least one more 60-goal season already had the 2020-21 season not been kept to 56 games. He scored at a 65-goal pace that season, with 41 goals in 52 games.

Only 23 players in NHL history have scored 60 goals in a season.

Matthews has scored 0.65 goals per game in his career, a mark that sits behind Bossy (0.76) and Lemieux (0.75) in the modern era.

Matthews is only 61 goals behind Mats Sundin for the most in franchise history. With seven more goals, Matthews will pass Dave Keon for third-most among Leafs.

Points

1. The Leafs still have an outside chance of winning home-ice advantage in the first round. They trail the Panthers by six points for the second spot in the Atlantic Division but still have a game in hand andface Florida two more times, including on Monday night.

2. One question Sheldon Keefe is presumably considering right now: Should Marner immediately rejoin Matthews when he’s ready to return from a high ankle sprain?

The Leafs have won over 66 percent of the expected goals when the current top line of Matthews, Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi is on the ice. On the actual scoreboard, though: The Leafs have scored seven and given up six.

It’s been … fine. Not so good to justify moving Marner elsewhere. (Where even? With John Tavares and Nylander?)

If Keefe does decide to hook Marner back up with Matthews, who comes off the line — Domi or Bertuzzi?

Keefe has yet to see what Matthews and Marner look like with this version of Bertuzzi and might be inclined to take a peak before the playoffs. That would allow Domi, potentially, to reclaim the third-line centre spot from Pontus Holmberg. Domi has looked a lot better on the wing recently, though — with Matthews. His stints on the wing with Nylander and Tavares were problematic.

Which is why Keefe might be more inclined to see what Domi looks like playing left wing with Matthews and Marner. That would also allow Bertuzzi to rejoin Tavares and Nylander.

What becomes of the third and fourth lines in that case? Does Holmberg centre, say, Bobby McMann and Matthew Knies, leaving Calle Järnkrok to play on a quicksand unit with David Kämpf and Connor Dewar?

Domi — Matthews — Marner

Bertuzzi — Tavares — Nylander

Knies — Holmberg — McMann

Dewar — Kämpf — Järnkrok

3. TJ Brodie has logged 51.5 minutes at five-on-five since being scratched for two games, tops on the team. The Leafs outscored their foes 4-1 in those minutes while winning almost 53 percent of the expected goals.

4. Another injury-related lineup consideration for Keefe: Where to slot Rielly back in when he’s ready to return from injury. If Rielly were to reconnect with Ilya Lyubushkin, who spent the past few games with Brodie, is the Leafs coach prepared to give Brodie another go with Jake McCabe?

5. The Leafs went 4-44 on the power play in March (9.1 percent). Only the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens fared worse.

The underlying numbers are concerning and un-Leaf-like:

Part of this is injuries: The Leafs haven’t had a full assortment of options for most of the month — they’ve been without Marner in particular, but also Rielly and then his replacement, Timothy Liljegren. This slide preceded those injuries, though.

The Leafs, with Guy Boucher overseeing things, need to get this sorted ASAP. On a more positive note, the penalty kill appears to be coming around.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo of Auston Matthews celebrating his 60th goal of the season with Mark Giordano: Bill Wippert / NHLI via Getty Images)