MMLR: Auston Matthews is authoring one of the greatest seasons … ever (2024)

It’s time we start thinking about this Auston Matthews season a little differently. Not just as a great season. Not just as maybe the greatest season by a Leaf. But one of the greatest seasons, period, by anyone, ever.

Seriously. That’s not hyperbole.

Adjust for era and Matthews is on pace to have the second-best scoring season of all time. Only Brett Hull in the 1990-91 season scored it better than Matthews is scoring it right now — with 48 goals (!) in 52 games.

Let’s take a second to absorb that. Matthews is scoring at a level — again, adjusted for the context of the era in which he plays — that exceeds, among others, Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy and Alex Ovechkin.

This is legendary stuff.

Matthews already belongs on the Mount Rushmore of NHL goal scorers.

Narrow things down to the modern era and Matthews’ 2020-21 season, in which he scored 41 goals in 52 games, ranks 15th in the adjusted goal single-season rankings. His 60-goal season, oddly, ranks 36th.

In short, this season is a whole ‘nother beast.

I mean, consider this crazy fact: This is already the second most goals Matthews has ever scored in an NHL season and he’s played 52 games.

Even crazier: Nikita Kucherov, a fellow Hart Trophy candidate, has never scored 48 goals in a season. Neither has another MVP contender this season, Nathan MacKinnon.

Sidney Crosby’s career high in a season is 51 goals. Evgeni Malkin tops out at 50. Matthews will probably breeze past there this week.

Matthews just passed John Tavares’ career high of 47 in the middle of February, meanwhile.

Matthews registered his sixth hat trick of the season over the weekend. That’s six hat tricks in 52 games or a hat trick for Matthews in 11.5 percent of his games this season. That total is already tied for the 11th most in NHL history.

The only players, in modern times, to win more hats: Gretzky, who holds the record with 10 (he did it twice), Bossy and Lemieux with nine apiece, Hull with eight, and the trio of Phil Esposito, Richard Martin and Alex Mogilny with seven.

Matthews needs only 16 even-strength goals over the final 29 games to become the Leafs’ all-time leader. Another 19 goals, in any situation, and Matthews will pass Dave Keon for third in franchise history.

Matthews is only 73 goals from catching Mats Sundin for most goals ever by a Leaf. He’s played in 448 fewer games than Sundin to this point.

Matthews is on track to break his own franchise record for goals in a season (60). He should get there by March, heck maybe even sooner.

Think about that. Matthews might have his second 60-goal season, and the franchise record, before Easter.

All of which will give him claim to arguably the greatest season by a Leaf in modern times, yes even better (maybe?) than Doug Gilmour’s legendary 1992-93 season, which saw him net 127 points. Matthews is on pace for an adjusted points total of 109 that would rank No. 1 among Leafs in the modern era. (That Gilmour campaign ranks fourth.)

What makes this season all the more remarkable, and all the more unprecedented, is that Matthews is scoring like this while defending like a champ — like a legitimate Selke Trophy contender.

Hull, Ovechkin, Lemieux, Gretzky, those guys were never that. Nobody was ever that.

The Athletic had Matthews ranked fourth in the Selke race last week. They also placed him fourth in the Hart Trophy race and well, maybe it’s time to rethink that.

Matthews should probably be a co-favourite right now.

Now, you might say, “Come on, Matthews is more than 20 points behind Kucherov in the scoring race.”

To which I would respond:

1. Goals are the most valuable commodity and Matthews has the most of them, a dozen more than Kucherov.
2. Matthews is scoring like that with elite defence.
3. Set aside secondary assists and Matthews is right there with the other Hart contenders in scoring.

In fact, heading into play on Sunday, Matthews trailed only Kucherov in primary points.

If Matthews keeps this up and produces only the 15th season 70-goal season in NHL history — and first in 31 years — and does it with top-tier defence, and drags the Leafs to the playoffs, his case for a second MVP will be hard to top.

Should he win it if Kucherov, say, gets to 140 points and finishes maybe 30 points clear of Matthews?

Well, we do have some precedent for that. That aforementioned Hull season, the greatest goal-scoring season by anyone adjusted for era, that season won Hull his first and only Hart Trophy.

He beat out Gretzky, who had 32 more points.

To be fair, Hull scored 86 goals that year — 35 (!) more than anyone else.

Matthews won’t have that advantage obviously. But he’s headed for a third Rocket with a nearly unprecedented level of scoring and unlike Hull, unlike anyone, combining it with Selke-level defence.

This isn’t normal. This is greatness.

Points

1. Tyler Bertuzzi scored for the first time since Dec. 27 in a blowout win over the Ducks on Saturday. Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe had been emphasizing the good in Bertuzzi’s game during the drought — the chances he was creating for himself and others.

“Bert’s made a lot of plays,” Keefe said hours before Bertuzzi ended a 19-game drought. “He’s created a lot of loose pucks on the forecheck for his linemates.”

Subtle stuff like this against the Flyers last week:

Bertuzzi’s extra effort creates the pressure for a turnover, which leads to a chance for Tavares.

That’s not enough. The Leafs need Bertuzzi to score too. They need him to lead the second wave of scoring behind the big four forwards. He’s paid to do so. The question is whether that’s still in him. Bertuzzi has scored 15 goals in his last 102 regular season games.

Said Keefe: “I still feel really strongly, this guy is going to be a very important player for us. I think this guy is fearless, he’s a competitor … He’s been a gamer when it really counts.”

Keefe was referring to not only Bertuzzi’s first NHL playoffs with Boston last spring, when he potted five goals and 10 points in seven games, but back even further than that. Bertuzzi was MVP of the AHL playoffs in 2017 for the Calder Cup-winning Grand Rapids Griffins. He had 10 goals and 17 points in 18 games when the Guelph Storm won the OHL championship in 2014.

The Leafs clearly believe (hope?) that guy will return later this spring.

It looks like the Leafs will be unveiling a five-forward No. 1 power-play unit.

Tyler Bertuzzi joins Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and a returning John Tavares. pic.twitter.com/TkBdlRobPJ

— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) February 18, 2024

2. This recent observation from Keefe on Bertuzzi stuck out: “He’s got to work at his game. He’s gotta practice, he’s gotta shoot with a purpose, he’s gotta take every rep in practice and have it be meaningful.”

Keefe said he discussed all of that with Bertuzzi.

It’s customary to see Matthews fine-tuning his one-timer before and after practice. Same with Tavares and his skating and William Nylander and his cutbacks. Not Bertuzzi. Not until recently. He practiced slot shots earlier this month with Guy Boucher and worked on receiving pucks on his backhand with skills coach Denver Manderson over the weekend.

3. Bobby McMann’s first 26 games this season: Two goals. Bobby McMann’s last three games this season: Five goals.

Keefe highlighted the key for McMann in the big picture: The 27-year-old (he’ll be 28 in June) had to establish a role for himself in the NHL. In other words, what exactly could the Leafs count on from him every night?

McMann doesn’t kill penalties, for instance. If he’s not going to score even a little from lower in the lineup, what’s his role exactly? If he can score a bit, on the other hand, and bring a modest speed/physicality combo, McMann could have a long NHL career as a bottom-six contributor.

4. Something for Keefe and his staff to maybe consider when they get healthier: Playing McMann with Max Domi in more offensive situations. McMann has played almost exclusively with the offensively limited David Kämpf for most of his brief NHL career.

5. One of the crazier aspects of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner becoming the most productive duo in Leafs history: They hardly played together during their first NHL three seasons, just 275 even-strength minutes total. For context, Matthews logged over 3000 even-strength minutes without Marner. This season alone, the two of them have spent over 600 even-strength minutes alongside one another.

Auston Matthews & Mitch Marner have now factored on the same goal 210 times

Most ever by a pair of teammates in Leafs franchise history … breaks a tie withDarryl Sittler&Lanny McDonald

— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) February 16, 2024

6. Matt Murray isn’t just occupying a stall at the Leafs’ practice facility. He’s been around the team a lot, even sitting in for team meetings.

7. Noah Gregor’s goal drought is up to 24 games.

8. Joseph Woll was snipping a healthy chunk of white tape off his ankle following Sunday’s practice. It doesn’t sound like Woll is quite ready to return. He’s expected to miss his 31st straight game Monday at home in Missouri. Said Keefe: “He’s just gotta continue to work through it and get to a point where he himself feels comfortable, confident to be playing games.”

What doesn’t help Woll this week: The Leafs have no scheduled practices on their upcoming road trip. Less time, in other words, to keep getting comfortable and confident.

—Stats and research courtesy of Stat Head, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, and Evolving Hockey

(Top photo: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)