Abnormally hot summer even more likely in latest NOAA forecast: Here’s where (2024)

by: Alix Martichoux

Posted: May 25, 2024 / 11:41 PM PDT

Updated: May 25, 2024 / 11:41 PM PDT

New predictions for the summer season, released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center this week, show weather is likely to heat up in almost every corner of the United States.

The forecast, which covers June, July and August, indicates nearly every U.S. state with leaning toward a hotter-than-normal summer season. The highest chances are found out West, where Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and parts of Colorado have a 60% to 70% chance of above-average temperatures over the next three months.

Several other Western states plus the Northeast are also strongly favored to see above-average heat.

The only exceptions to the forecast on the continental U.S. are the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota and Iowa. The section of the upper Midwest, shaded in white on the map below, has equal chances of a normal summer, a hotter-than-average summer and a cooler-than-average summer.

The summer of 2024 could be a repeat of summer 2023, which was the hottest in more than 2,000 years for the Northern Hemisphere, a new study of tree rings found.

The summer forecast hasn’t just grown hotter over the last month, but it’s also grown drier. The same band of western states most likely to see hot temperatures is also leaning toward less-than-normal precipitation.

That could create drought conditions in a region that isn’t faring too poorly now, but has struggled with extreme drought in recent years. To make matters worse, we’re heading into a La Niña pattern by late summer. La Niña years are associated with drought conditions for the southern half of the country, including Southern California and the Southwest.

La Niña is also associated with a stronger hurricane season in the Atlantic, which is expected in 2024.

La Niña is currently favored to begin sometime between July and September.